For a few people who will read this essay by Russell it will be seen as
conformation of their own long standing conclusions.
That an Empire such as this one which we live in cannot sustain on the
wealth of other nations. And that includes and Empires most evident tactic
of using force to extract other countries wealth.
All Empires have remained strong as long as they where expanding and a good
reference on this is: Imperial San Francisco, published in the early
nineties.
And when expansion ends empires go through the throws of contraction and
which are never with out pain.
In our case we had more to utilize as well as more energy needs since this
is the first actually large industrialized 'nation' to also become an
Empire.
England never reached the industrial base that the U.S. did. And i use the
past tense because of the preseant U.S. industrial rust belt and our
shrinking international sales.
As the scale rating of Empires goes we went up very fast and we our now
coming down much faster. And i assume this is because of the enormous energy
input has heated the forge to a fury white which will soon recede to a
cooling reddish lump.
Though our energy input would indicate we are still a strong industrial
nation when it is really misleading as so much energy is used in our
personal transportation and residential demands.
As you may recall Buffet was not taken in by the NASDAQ streak to the sky.
Nor for that matter has the grand sport of selling each other houses been
proven to be a substitute for industrial production.
Russell also asks the question of how it will unwind within the empire and
when. And his conclusion that the gun shot that will wake the bear is
impossible to clearly define. Though it is out their and though the bear
hasn't knocked he is definitely circling and smelling for a meal.
As to gold the only significant similarity to the last run up in the early
eighties is the big money is already in and that was some years ago and now
the public soon will follow. And though they are not sure of the reason they
will understand that it's now the happening.
And on just a practical level it will be silver that will show the most
action for the most people. it follows gold ...going up.
Also the availability of gold is limited along with the significance of the
investment.
The gold/silver ratio is now in the mid fifties and the normal price
relationship historically is in the teens. So silver has got to rise until
that relationship norm is achieved.
Russell is the senior investment writer in the business as he has been doing
this since 58 and with and excellent market prediction record.
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