This is a recent TOD update on Richard Duncan's Olduvia Theory which was formulated in 89. And for those who might not recall 'what it is about' it states petroleum crude oil production/decline curve spans a 100 yrs. 1930 to 2030. This is the petroleum curve that allows us to experience a highly industrial society in the west. (The theory encompasses all world oil production.) And from that a electrical grid based nation such as the
U.S. We'll again it's all over other than for lighting the camp fires because our buckets got a hole in it. Is the up date holding a kernel of hope that Duncan was wrong? I'm not seeing it and if they had found it i believe they would have been.... shouting out. The basic (it'll be OK) assumption for most of us is: Technology has always saved us in the recent past.... so it probably will again. But the fault with that premise is it takes energy to convert other energy in to a usable form. And the priority energy is a fossil based fuel which is going 'up in smoke'. Their will be oil/gas sources for centuries to come (if we are still around to count them) but the availability and quantity is the issue in this bell curve of production. After 2030/40 production world wide will be dismal and not for the likes of us mud daubers. And again we are now past the 'table mountian' and on the decline slope which soon (2008-12) becomes a slide. They offer semi-solutions here but other than for the producer countries hoarding their production and the expected population die off from pestilence and wars. I think it comes down to again following the mule in the furrow for those that survive. So the good thing about being born in a low end third world country at this time is you are already where the 'rich nations' will be in twenty or thirty years. These comments which i have added here is to flesh out this very significant assessment as they are not mentioned or at least sparingly as this is about production projections and comparisons of assessments. It's the oil tech club members talking amongst them selves and everyone who is a spectator is expected to do their home work. To read the Olduvai Theory just ask for it at Wikapedia and they will be glad to serve it up along with a hot bowl of stone soup.
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