On page 7, the Olduvia Theory's peak oil chart is illustrated. Since Duncan published his theory and charts in about 1999 it has been tweaked forward by others with the world production plateau now about ten years advanced. Even so it has also been determined we are now on the edge of a world crude decline both from lack of new oil field discoveries and the price of oil which is also not controlling (capping) the world demand. Crude today is hovering around $99 a barrel and also this in practice means no oil for the third world unless they are producing it domestically. The industrial world can afford $100 bbl oil...for awhile and especially to keep the electrical grid up and running. If the grid dies the industrial west is brain dead. Considering the Olduvai peak oil cycle started in 1930 that would now give a down curve ....bottom or flat line at about 2040 if we include the recent adjustment. That is hardly a reprieve for a thirsty industrial world. And the experience of going down the slippery slide of the bell curve as you will notice is not a pleasant experience. But for us in the industrial west it will be democratically experienced. This is one area that those living with less 'might' experience less immediate shock as they have less to loose. Put another way (analogy) if you happen to already be living in a mud hut and without electrical power the lights won't be turned off just because the world has 'run out' of oil. So when this was just a possible and obscure theory and really based on M.King Hubbert's diminishing national field production theory it was: Oh well, what the hell we have access to the rest of the world's oil to fill the gap. For anyone who might be interested i will follow this msg with a essay on a blog which was just published today describing Matt Simons statements with regards to world oil reserves and which are confirming that world production has topped. And this was presented at a conference sponsored by CERA which is all sunshine regarding our oil reserves. If you are reading any of this information in news papers or news sites on the net i would be surprised,. It is just not on the horizon as who wants to disturb us the sleeping sheep?
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