But I believe he is accurate as to how they will try and play it out. Any
thing and everything until after the election.
But i got my doubts and i think John may have his aswell that other
countries see the U.S as "too big to fail". We are right now in the early
throes of Empire change and aswell if it would free up fuel and energy for
China and Japan if the U.S. economy took a hit up side the head..I think
they could turn their head while it was a happin.
And as to withdrawing from Iraq! Not a chance as McCain said even if it
takes a hundred years to win... blah, blah.
Immigration and young skilled workers to save the retirement system for the
Boomers. Oh yeah! Actually it's more like: "over my dead body will i go
along with more gooks moving in" And though, it maybe unpopular... if the
U.S. Corporations want it the story on Fox media will change to: Gooks are
great. Why they are just six packers just like us.. it's just they talk
funny and on and on.
----- Original Message -----
From: John L.
To: larrylewis
Sent: Wednesday, March 19, 2008 8:39 PM
Subject: Re: The Fed's Managed Deflation or| Second Great Depression?
I don't know Larry - the fed obviously would like the best of all worlds and
Paulson, Bush's lapdog, is really the one who is behind "saving" the economy
at all costs including backing all of Bear Stearns' derivative paper,
reducing Fannie Mae's reserve requirements so that they can lend more out
etc.
I imagine that the Fed and the Treasury will try their darndest to keep up
the credit and stock markets at least until the election and they do have
most of the short-term levers to do so. No matter what George W. says, he
vividly remembers what happened to Bush Sr. and why he wasn't reelected and
I believe George W. will stop at almost nothing to try to prop up the
economy until the November election. Longer term is another story...
They can also slow the financial slide into a more manageable scenario by
possibly enlisting the help of other gevernments to prop up the U.S. dollar
if the U.S. "promises" not to reduce interest rates much more and to strike
a better balance between our deficit spending and inflating our way out of a
possible recession/depression. We may also be able to convince other central
banks to sell more gold in the future which would help give the appearance
of more economic order in the world.
There are so many variables including: Congress, the fed, the Treasury,
foreign governments, geopolitical events, world competion for resources, the
financial companies' health, ideological issues such as the distribution of
wealth and Universal healthcare etc., the new administration's policies; the
dollar etc.
Many may differ on this but I think that a large part of the intermediate
term economic answer for the U.S. is to focus on encouraging and increasing
overall immigration with emphasis placed on "recruiting" professional
(scientists, doctors, engineers, technicians etc.) familes from places such
as India, South Korea etc. which could go a long way in creating new demand
to sop up some of the houses in the deteriorating housing market; put
additional money into the Medicare and SS systems and overall tax coffers;
change the demographics to a slightly younger age population which would
help to support all the baby boomers going into retirement; and help
increase our nation's savings rates as most of them would already have $ and
better savings habits to boot.
I know that this policy would be controversial and it does smack a little of
reverse economic and ethnic profiling, but it also could be viewed as
necessary to our country's interest to do so as we are in deep doo doo and
will need to find increasingly creative and non-militaristic solutions to
deal with our longer term financial challenges.
Of course, what would also help in the shorter term would be to immediately
begin to pull out of Iraq and use a lot of the savings to create jobs by
starting the rebuilding of our nation's infrastrucure along the lines of
FDR's policies after WWII. I believe that a part of this money should also
go into encouraging the rapid investment and deployment of alternative
energy technologies and resources.
Today, my best guess is that we are currently experiencing a relatively
orderly economic decline and then should have slower growth for many years
to come. This view is based on the premise that the government has many more
tools at their disposal today than they had in the 30s and that foreign
governments will cooperate and conspire with us more as they will view us as
too big to allow to fail!!
Joe sixpack will probably "suffer" however as he will have to change his
lifestyle some - not all bad as runaway consumerism and its resulting debt
needs to slow dramatically over time. Jimmy Carter's notion of combining
voluntary and mandated energy and resource conservation and recycling
(self-sustainability) should also be given a serious second look!
John
larrylewis wrote:
John, I'm not convinced this is the way it's coming down..or maybe apart.
Mike is describing the Fed as really in-charge of this collapsing economy.
Too me, it still looks like greed and dog eat dog. and then a short repose
by JPM for digestion.
My take would be again settle into the day and profit taking was the way
to go.
I'm expecting the IMF will sell that 400 tons of gold soon and that will
buck up the fake and drive the PM mkt down.
I guess my take is if the Fed was sending subtle msgs it wasn't heard over
the scream of pain.
And having said all that i would be interested in your own opinion as to
where the hell we are or going.
Larry
http://depression2.tv/d2/node/49
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