Monday, March 31, 2008

Mar 31, 2008 This week in 'The Room' Doug Casey 321gold

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/casey/casey033108.html
Current predictions concerning the real estate mkt.

That R-E prices could still go down 30-40 percent and then they describe why this might be a possibility.
But the one i really feel maybe the most valid of the multiple choice horror stories.
That the R-E mkt collapse may take a generations attention before it begins to return. Real estate maybe location, location but it is also based on trust and confidence in the future.
If we look at the eighties/nineties and the Japanese economy and actually their R-E cycle. It was better than a generation before the turn around began and they where not dead in the water and flat out broke such as our own big garbage scow seems to be.
Is the Fed's current plans going to help us.... or the big banks? We'll if the share holders of the Federal Reserve Bank and which is composed of foreign banks. i will have to conclude they will take care of their owners before they will serve the publics needs.

And if the BearStern deal is any indication... bear meat was served up raw for JPM/C.
Other bidders.... what other bidders? And after it's been ripped too pieces and swallowed it's a little late to put the pieces back together so they can find other potential buyers.
So putting the Fed in physical charge of the nations banks is just lighting the barbeque for the really big fest.

What i suspect they may be getting us ready for is another S & L type bargain sell off..Only that was real estate and S&L's and this will be the regional banks.
More crisis bank failing?..... Does a sea gull eat fish?

OK, look at it this way. What are most banks NOW holding as collateral? How about questionable paper on allot of over priced auto that people will not be able to fuel ($3.70 pump price locally for regular) and humongous plastic debt aswell as personal and business mortgages. And if those are now in question?
Sort of makes you understand why the foreign investors are stepping back and then......running.

AND AS WELL!
It's national unemployment on the rise, consumer confidence falling and fast. Along with steep inflation around consumer necessities. So isn't this all going to land in the regional banks lap at some point and soon.

All banks are always over extend though they refer to it as the deposit/loan ratio but as long as loans are growing... no problem. And once they loose loan momentum the greatest scam ever invented is reveled.
And where we are today sure looks like dinner soon for the big guys .At least to me.

Capitalism goes through stages which eventually gets to extreme consolidation which is then followed by collapse.
And accepting the premise which we where all taught...too believe. That this nation is invincible and it's intentions are honorable... it's really asking allot to even consider that this shining vessel of economic freedom and democracy could develop cracks.

But the above may also be a very limited PR definition of Empire. And all empires before they fall to the invaders at the gates usually first fail from with in.
And the internal crisis is slow to be acknowledged especially while the party is going on. Also we are directed to be looking for the external terrorist rather than at our own soft under belly


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